FOURTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
July 20-23 2005

ISIPTA'05 ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Cédric Baudrit, Didier Dubois

Comparing Methods for Joint Objective and Subjective Uncertainty Propagation with an example in a risk assessment

Abstract

Probability-boxes, numerical possibility theory and belief functions have been suggested as useful tools to represent imprecise, vague or incomplete information. They are particularly appropriate in environment risk assessment where information is typically tainted with imprecision or incompleteness. Based on these notions, we present and compare four different methods to propagate objective and subjective uncertainties through multivariate functions. Lastly, we use these different techniques on an environmental real case of soil contamination by lead on an ironworks brownfield.

Keywords. Imprecise Probabilities, Possibility, Belief functions, Probability-Boxes, Dependency Bounds

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Authors addresses:

Cédric Baudrit
Institut de Recherche en Informatique de Toulouse
Université Paul Sabatier, 118 route de Narbonne 31062 Toulouse Cedex 4, France

Didier Dubois
Porte 308
IRIT, Universit Paul Sabatier,
118 route de Narbonne,
31062, Toulouse, cedex 4, FRANCE.

E-mail addresses:

Cédric Baudrit baudrit@irit.fr
Didier Dubois dubois@irit.fr


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