A granular based semantics for fuzzy measures is introduced in which the measure of a set of propositions approximates the probability of the disjunction of these propositions. This approximation is derived from known probabilities across a granular partition of the set of possible worlds. This interpretation is then extended to allow for the case where there is uncertainty regarding the meanings of propositions. Such a semantics is motivated by, and provides some justification for, the use of fuzzy measure to quantify the uncertainty associated with climate emissions scenarios. The use of socio-economic scenarios in climate models is discussed in the context of a possible worlds model and an example is given of the use of fuzzy measures across scenarios to aggregate global mean temperature predictions.
Keywords. Fuzzy measures, operational semantics, uncertain models, emission scenarios
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Authors addresses:
Jonathan Lawry
Dept. Engineering Mathematics
University of Bristol
Bristol BS8 1TR
UK
Jim Hall
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Room 3.19 Cassie Building
University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne
NE1 7RU
Guangtao Fu
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Bristol
Queens Building
University Walk
Bristol BS8 1TR
E-mail addresses:
| Jonathan Lawry | j.lawry@bris.ac.uk |
| Jim Hall | jim.hall@ncl.ac.uk |
| Guangtao Fu | guangtao.fu@bristol.ac.uk |